Trump’s national momentum is finally transforming into real progress in critical states

Donald Trump keeps closing the gap in nationwide and state by state polling. As the campaign enters the final two months, Trump is looking more and more competitive. Just like last week, here is the most recent national and state-by-state polling.

National Polling

Looking at the Real Clear Politics (RCP) national polling average, Trump is continuing to close the gap nationally. Last week Trump was down 4.6 points in the RCP average. This week he is down 2.7 points. In the four most recent polls Trump leads one, is down by two points in two others, and is down by only one point in one poll. The race has tightened down the stretch.

Last week Trump’s movement had not yet translated into the state by state polls. This week, however, we are beginning to see some of that national momentum translate into movement on the state level. Trump has closed the gap in many state polls, and the latest polling is trending his way. Like last week, let’s take a look at the 14 states RCP is tracking as battlegrounds.

State by State Polling

From now until the election,  using the RCP polling averages from Wednesday afternoons, I’ll outline how the polling has been trending week-by-week, going back to June 1. Here is a look at the way the 14 state by state polls moved this past week.

Arizona (11 Electoral Votes)

The 2016 RCP Arizona polling average, vs the 2008 and 2012 results for Arizona, shows that Trump is underperforming significantly. Over the last few weeks he has started to pull ahead, but a recent Arizona Republic poll shows Clinton with a slight lead. Trump is having trouble in a state that Republicans have won quite handily in recent elections.

Colorado (Nine Electoral Votes)

Colorado is another state in which Trump is vastly underperforming the previous two elections. He is down by 11.3 points based on the RCP average. This is worse than even McCain did in 2008. Trump has gained a half point in the past week on Clinton.

Florida (29 Electoral Votes)

As of Wednesday, Trump was down by 2.7 points on average in Florida, which was unchanged from the previous week. Yesterday, two polls were released that have changed that average drastically. Going into the weekend, Trump is down 0.3 points in the RCP Florida polling average. This is better than Romney’s narrow 0.9 point loss in 2012 and it is the best Trump’s done since the end of July. Trump is making Florida competitive.