Will Ted Cruz Make Naysayers Eat Crow?

One month ago, Henry Olsen wrote that Ted Cruz was unlikely to win the GOP nomination. The reason: his support and entire political persona was based in the most conservative portions of the party, portions that did not come close to comprising a majority.
He trailed potential rival Marco Rubio among the key group that historically decides who wins, the “somewhat conservatives”.
Well, Olsen did write that “a month is forever in politics”, and December so far looks to be one of the months. Cruz has now pulled ahead of or significantly narrowed the gap with Rubio among somewhat conservatives and Republicans who prefer someone who can beat Hillary to someone who is the most conservative on the issues.
If he maintains this position, Cruz looks to emerge as either the nominee or as Trump’s main challenger. This pro-Cruz trend can be found in national, Iowa, and New Hampshire polls. Today’s Quinnipiac poll has the biggest change, showing Cruz up six points among somewhat conservatives and Rubio down a whopping 15 points over its November poll.
But other polls show similar, although less dramatic, movement. PPP’s December national poll, for example, shows Cruz unchanged among somewhat conservatives but Rubio down 3 points, and its Iowa poll show Cruz up 9 points among somewhat conservatives from late October.

CBS/You Gov’s December Iowa poll has Cruz up 23 percent among its version of somewhat conservatives and Rubio dropping by two. The CBS/You Gov New Hampshire poll has Cruz up 3 among somewhat conservatives (Rubio is unchanged) over its last installment, and the December Boston Herald poll shows Cruz gaining three points over its October poll.

In all, Cruz either leads Rubio among somewhat conservatives or trails him by five points or less in all six polls. This means Cruz can ride his huge lead over Rubio among very conservative voters (which nationally is between 28 and 30 percent) to victory.

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Source: Ted Cruz Gains Among Somewhat Conservatives