If turnout is above 135,000 in the GOP Iowa caucuses Monday, it will be good news for Donald Trump. If it stays below that number, Ted Cruz’s chances improve.
Des Moines, Iowa — 135,000. That’s the “magic number” to watch Monday night as Republican caucus-goers gather around the Hawkeye State to choose their presidential nominee, according to data collected and analyzed by numerous GOP campaign officials.
Four years ago, a record-breaking number of Iowans — 121,503 — participated in the Republican caucuses. If turnout exceeds 135,000 this year, GOP insiders agree, it will be an indication that Donald Trump has attracted a significant number of new voters to the caucuses. And if the increase is even more drastic — say, upwards of 150,000, which some Republicans believe is possible — then Trump will likely win.
But if turnout is below 135,000, Iowa will be Ted Cruz’s to lose, for two reasons: Firstly, both public and internal polling shows that Cruz’s supporters are, by and large, veterans of the caucus process, meaning their support can be counted on no matter what. Secondly, the Cruz campaign has poured massive resources into a field operation to successfully identify, persuade, and recruit voters. Cruz’s team, with the help of advanced analytics and micro-targeting, has a very good idea of exactly who is going to show up and vote for them Monday night.
The same cannot be said for Trump. The question of whether the enthusiasm for his candidacy will translate into caucus attendance has loomed over Iowa’s campaign for months. Republicans here have watched closely for signs of increased voter registration, but a report from the secretary of state’s office on Thursday confirmed that there has not been any meaningful spike in the GOP voter rolls — registration is up by nearly 3,000, but the total number is nearly identical to what it was in January 2012. (It’s worth noting that voters can still register at their caucus precincts on Monday.) “Ted Cruz’s support is going to be there,” says Iowa GOP chairman Jeff Kaufmann. The same can’t necessarily be said for Trump supporters, he adds, “because they don’t have a caucus history.”
That hasn’t stopped some Republicans from forecasting an enormous uptick in voter participation. Kaufmann has asked GOP officials around the state to prepare for as many as 170,000 caucus-goers, though he says he expects 150,000 or slightly less. The latter figure is being floated by Governor Terry Branstad, who has told allies that he expects shocking levels of participation on Monday. Those are high-end estimates, however. Officials from many of the campaigns predict the number will fall somewhere between 125,000 and 140,000. A few even think the figure could remain relatively static at 122,000, arguing that Ron Paul drew many first-time caucus-goers in 2012 who won’t be back this time.
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