In the 21st century, conservatives should fight hard to defend that most important of American institutions: the family.
They have also shrunk as a share of the electorate, going roughly from 80 to 40 percent over that period. Among voters under 30, they went from almost 80 to below 20 percent.
Even if immigration were to stop, they would have to do better among people whose ancestors mostly came from outside Europe. Making inroads among non-Christians and nonwhites is a formidable challenge that conservatives have barely begun to tackle. But it is the decline of marriage — the decrease in the percentage of adults who are married, and in the percentage of children being raised by parents who are married to each other — that may prove the most problematic for conservatism.