Winning 2016 Message — Hillary Will Be Obama Third Term

Our most recent national survey, which was completed between June 18 and June 22 among 1,008 likely 2016 presidential voters, is showing some rather early but complex trends that could transform the Obama years into a new political era. The Democrats for the second month in a row lead Republicans for Congress 44 percent to 42 percent.

The key for the Republicans is that one in six of all voters, 18 percent, disapproves of the job that President Obama is doing, but is not voting Republican. However, last November, it was this segment of voters that, when they finally decided their vote, went from undecided to voting Republican, and they carried Republicans to a bigger majority in the House and control of the U.S. Senate.

Right now both parties remain polarized in their vote for Congress. Republicans vote for Republicans 95 percent to 1 percent. Democrats vote for Democrats 90 percent to 5 percent. Independents are evenly split at 32 percent for each party, with 36 percent undecided.

Among our major findings is that a majority of Americans continue to disapprove of the job President Obama is doing: Only 46 percent of all voters approve of the job Obama is doing, while 52 percent disapprove.